Author Archives: Confutus

About Confutus

I am a native and resident of Arizona who doesn't thaw out until it hits 90 degrees. I call myself a self-educating generalist and my lifetime goal is to slowly and methodically learn everything. For fun, I read Science Fiction and Fantasy, and sometimes attempt writing it, although I occasionally foray into westerns, mysteries, romances, and thrillers. I'm working on writing the SF. I'm a politically conservative Mormon. I have two adult boys and a friendly ex-wife who live up north. I'm a somewhat unconventional creature of boring habit who occasionally makes unexpected sideways leaps into something different.

Writing history

I have known for some time that studies of prehistory depend heavily on archaeology and earth science, which began to develop most seriously in the 19th century and 20th century. I had not begun to seriously develop those periods, but I am starting to go through them going through them as an aid to study of prehistory. Studies of prehistory also depend heavily on academic institutions and scholarly heritage in Western Civilization. I have been conducting a review of the history of Western Civilization, in hopes of filling in the details of academic and scholarly history. One of the things I accomplished in the last few months was the connection of biographical pages to Anglic history. It has long been one of my goals to use these biographical figures to fill in details of history. This allows me to get a picture of important developments. I don’t have many of these in antiquity or classical and medieval history, but modern history, starting with the 16th century and 17th century, is coming along nicely. I am also connecting biographies of Latin peoples with the intention of doing a similar review.


I am finding that working in prehistory is more satisfying than trying to track current events, so I’ve been trying to expand the examination of the earliest periods. This is requiring that I look more into the development of science, particularly biology. Since I had set this aside for a long while, there’s a certain satisfaction in getting back to it.


WordPress hates me. It tried to lock me out so I had to reset the password. I understand that it hates everybody, so at least I don’t need to be lonely.

Today’s work revealed a bunch of continuing wars and conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, which gives me something to look for in previous weeks and months. But then, I already know that. The goal is to get more specific detail. I have decided to move information about the 2020 presidential campaign to the next 5 years, since the election is beyond the 1-year horizon.


Really? That long?

Have I really not posted on the blog since October?
Alright, I did drop working on the future in favor of going back to prehistory. But I recently decided to switch back to the present and work on current events some.
I am not working much on the far future or middle future. The near future is being connected. I don’t have much for the next 5 years. Within the next year, the major anticipated event is the US 2020 Presidental election. President Trump is already campaigning for re-election. On Sarah Hoyt’s blog, one of the commenters referred to the crowded field last election cycle, and mentioned 76 Unknowns. It seems appropriate. I didn’t even try following this last time, but the Knowledge Base has developed enough that I can give it a try this time.
Looking ahead in the next month, Brexit negotiations and another Summit meeting between President Trump and North Korea are anticipated.
Modern history is being connected to more cities. For the 20th century I am reviewing Asiatic peoples, and for the early 21st century I am reviewing Latin peoples. The late 2010s are being connected to cities.
Current events, those of 2019, are a month behind. So far, there are references to earlier events in the 20th century, since World War II, and I will be looking into these a little. The connections to nations and peoples are not yet very broad. Western Civilization is dominated by Anglic peoples. So far, political events in the United States are getting most attention, followed political events in Venezuela. I will be looking deeper into both religion and government, although government has more associated events.
I wanted to go to LTUE again this year, but car repairs this last fall were too costly and ate my savings. I have also not put much attention into creative endeavors, so I don’t have as much to show as I wanted. Hopefully I can go next year.

Peering into the future

Prediction of the future is risky, but examination of what is planned is useful. Things such as the Olympic games and the Gordie Howe International bridge between Detroit and Windsor are planned years in advance. It is possible to categorize the next 5 years, next year, next quarter, and next month. These are moving targets, and I may move projections and predictions into the past as events overtake them. This will allow comparison between plans and forecasts and historical events. As I work back through weeks of the current year, and previous years, I expect to accumulate a greater variety of plans and predictions. I have a few predictions and plans for the next quarter I will be watching. For the next month, maneuvers of the Japanese Hayabusa 2 probe of asteroid 162173 Ryugu can be anticipated.

I now have reasonable summaries of India and Pakistan for the past year. Events of Northeast European peoples are being separated and distinguished from general Western civilization.

Sewing and Stitching

Although many events in the future are not predictable, a certain amount can be be determined from plans, and I am starting to being work on the near future, and next month, by noting planned and future events for each week.
Now that I have events for the past year sufficiently sliced, diced, and rearranged, I can go to work on establishing other connections. In order to construct an outline of history from a raw chronicle of events, I need continuity and connections. This means connecting events and periods to earlier ones, for background purposes, and to later ones, to help evaluate their importance and consequences.
So far, events of India are emerging. For the past quarter, I note that the Supreme Court of India has decriminalized homosexuality, and India is planning a manned space program. I will be watching this. Other nations should also start emerging.

Closing in

Examination of the future is still difficult, but I’m starting to make a little progress. I have just a few more weeks in April to analyze before I have my outline of events for the year 2018. I hope to get that done soon.

The work on design of liquid-fueled rocked engines is going slow, but I made a little bit of progress. I got through the fuel and oxidizer flow rates, which is where I gave up the last time I worked on this. Now I’m working on calculations for the combustion chamber and nozzle. Copying the necessary equations into a word processor is excessively tedious, but I need to do this to document my work before I run the numbers.

I paid out a while ago for GURPS Vehicle Builder, which was supposed to aid and simplify the design process. As a writer working with simulations, this gives me a reasonably plausible ballpark estimates for what might be practical to try to actually design. I can only apply it to the real world with great caution, but it is giving me some preliminary ballpark figures. After a couple of hours figuring out how to use it, I established that liquid rocket fueled engines with extreme low values of thrust (below 2 lbs) are probably impractical, even for hobbyists. I need a lot more information about radio control and instrumentation before I can write convincingly about the design program. A few years ago, I make inquiries about the local model rocketry club, which was going through some difficulties. With my revival of interest in the subject, I would like too attend the next launch.

More slicing

I indicated that I’m starting to work on the future. I don’t think I can do much in the future without a solid grip on the present. I’m still working analyzing and rearranging events of April and May, but I;m getting closer.

This has been re-igniting my interest in creative science fiction. I started work on a near-future science fiction novel, incorporating some of my thoughts on reusable launch vehicles. I came across a book that’s been published and made available on the web; “How to Design, Build, and Test Liquid-fueled Rocket Engines”, and I’m starting to work through the design equations. I don’t have the machinery or the skill to actually build one, but my fictional characters do, and I feel like I need to work through the problems so I will know what problems they will have to deal with.

I am also working through my gaming material, GURPS and Traveller; which provide other ideas and design sequence I can use for fictional vehicles.

I also have some software for mapping and cartography that I am using, and a couple of projects. We shall see what, if anything, comes of all this.

Slicing, Dicing, and Rearranging

I don’t suppose it’s any great secret that I used the archived versions of Wikipedia’s current events as a first draft news source for major world events. I’m not entirely happy with it and would more in-depth discussion, but it is sufficient for my needs at present. I have a different organizing principle for events: I classify events by region or country first, and then by other criteria. International events, politics, armed conflicts and attacks, and law and crime would go under government; business and economy would go under economics, disasters and accidents and sports both go under culture, and science and technology may go under technology or science, depending on where the events fit.

For 2018, I started working in January 1, with decreasing depth of nations for each week, until sometime in April, then I took a break and worked with prehistory and antiquity. I took a lesson from that, and when I resumed current events around the 1st of September, I began focusing on recent events. What this means for the present is that for the first quarter, the events have sliced, diced, and rearranged and the coverage of nations is sufficient to distinguish India, Pakistan, and China. The second quarter does not have either the extent of nations or sufficient rearrangement of events. The third quarter has events rearranged, but not the extent of nations. I can mostly distinguish Anglic peoples; South Asian, Oriental, and Southeast Asian peoples; African peoples; and American Indian peoples, but not yet individual nations within these categories.

This is no great obstacle at present. I have a working pattern of development that is moving faster than events, but I expect it to be another week or so before I can begin summarizing the events of the past year and begin making informed commentary. I could possibly make some snarky generalized comments, but I prefer to have the details and solid information.

Back to the Future

I decided that I almost have enough background to resume exploring the future.
Except, not quite. Since I let almost six months go by without attending to current events, there is a lot of material to go through. Being able to sort events into “Western Civilization” and “Asiatic peoples” during the last month or so seems like only a small step forward, but this will be an accelerating process.