Category Archives: History

Peering into the future

Prediction of the future is risky, but examination of what is planned is useful. Things such as the Olympic games and the Gordie Howe International bridge between Detroit and Windsor are planned years in advance. It is possible to categorize the next 5 years, next year, next quarter, and next month. These are moving targets, and I may move projections and predictions into the past as events overtake them. This will allow comparison between plans and forecasts and historical events. As I work back through weeks of the current year, and previous years, I expect to accumulate a greater variety of plans and predictions. I have a few predictions and plans for the next quarter I will be watching. For the next month, maneuvers of the Japanese Hayabusa 2 probe of asteroid 162173 Ryugu can be anticipated.

I now have reasonable summaries of India and Pakistan for the past year. Events of Northeast European peoples are being separated and distinguished from general Western civilization.

Sewing and Stitching

Although many events in the future are not predictable, a certain amount can be be determined from plans, and I am starting to being work on the near future, and next month, by noting planned and future events for each week.
Now that I have events for the past year sufficiently sliced, diced, and rearranged, I can go to work on establishing other connections. In order to construct an outline of history from a raw chronicle of events, I need continuity and connections. This means connecting events and periods to earlier ones, for background purposes, and to later ones, to help evaluate their importance and consequences.
So far, events of India are emerging. For the past quarter, I note that the Supreme Court of India has decriminalized homosexuality, and India is planning a manned space program. I will be watching this. Other nations should also start emerging.

Closing in

Examination of the future is still difficult, but I’m starting to make a little progress. I have just a few more weeks in April to analyze before I have my outline of events for the year 2018. I hope to get that done soon.

The work on design of liquid-fueled rocked engines is going slow, but I made a little bit of progress. I got through the fuel and oxidizer flow rates, which is where I gave up the last time I worked on this. Now I’m working on calculations for the combustion chamber and nozzle. Copying the necessary equations into a word processor is excessively tedious, but I need to do this to document my work before I run the numbers.

I paid out a while ago for GURPS Vehicle Builder, which was supposed to aid and simplify the design process. As a writer working with simulations, this gives me a reasonably plausible ballpark estimates for what might be practical to try to actually design. I can only apply it to the real world with great caution, but it is giving me some preliminary ballpark figures. After a couple of hours figuring out how to use it, I established that liquid rocket fueled engines with extreme low values of thrust (below 2 lbs) are probably impractical, even for hobbyists. I need a lot more information about radio control and instrumentation before I can write convincingly about the design program. A few years ago, I make inquiries about the local model rocketry club, which was going through some difficulties. With my revival of interest in the subject, I would like too attend the next launch.

Slicing, Dicing, and Rearranging

I don’t suppose it’s any great secret that I used the archived versions of Wikipedia’s current events as a first draft news source for major world events. I’m not entirely happy with it and would more in-depth discussion, but it is sufficient for my needs at present. I have a different organizing principle for events: I classify events by region or country first, and then by other criteria. International events, politics, armed conflicts and attacks, and law and crime would go under government; business and economy would go under economics, disasters and accidents and sports both go under culture, and science and technology may go under technology or science, depending on where the events fit.

For 2018, I started working in January 1, with decreasing depth of nations for each week, until sometime in April, then I took a break and worked with prehistory and antiquity. I took a lesson from that, and when I resumed current events around the 1st of September, I began focusing on recent events. What this means for the present is that for the first quarter, the events have sliced, diced, and rearranged and the coverage of nations is sufficient to distinguish India, Pakistan, and China. The second quarter does not have either the extent of nations or sufficient rearrangement of events. The third quarter has events rearranged, but not the extent of nations. I can mostly distinguish Anglic peoples; South Asian, Oriental, and Southeast Asian peoples; African peoples; and American Indian peoples, but not yet individual nations within these categories.

This is no great obstacle at present. I have a working pattern of development that is moving faster than events, but I expect it to be another week or so before I can begin summarizing the events of the past year and begin making informed commentary. I could possibly make some snarky generalized comments, but I prefer to have the details and solid information.

Back to the Future

I decided that I almost have enough background to resume exploring the future.
Except, not quite. Since I let almost six months go by without attending to current events, there is a lot of material to go through. Being able to sort events into “Western Civilization” and “Asiatic peoples” during the last month or so seems like only a small step forward, but this will be an accelerating process.

Disconnected

I’d like to report better progress on my approach to recent and current events. However, great speed is hardly to be expected. What I have at the level of weeks of January 2018 is a collection of disconnected events. It isn’t until I move to a scale of months, quarters, and years that these events start to form patterns. I’ve gotten down to the scale of weeks several times, but haven’t pursued it forward or backward to the point where events at the larger scales are evident. We shall see what happens this time. It’s somewhat easier to track all this mentally, but mental images tend to get fuzzy unless the are anchored to details.

Backtrack

I got to about the 27th century BC and decided that I wanted to backtrack to go through periods of prehistory: Trying to do all the possible connections was just too tedious. But I have made some progress in other areas.

For one, I have finished a review of how other sociology applies to Asiatic peoples, and have begin reviewing religion. For another, I have finally finished connecting biographies to social mechanics, and I am now in a position to consider why the people selected for the biographies were important. For a third, I have finished reviewing connecting nations and cities to culture, and done a review of how peoples are applied. I am now in the process of reviewing how institutions are applied to culture.

Bronze Age

The fourth millennium BC includes the beginning of Bronze age civilization and the beginnings of recorded, written history. At my present stage of development, this is largely concentrated on Egyptian civilization and culture, but I do have references to developing civilizations in Pakistan and China.

At this point, I am shifting to antiquity. Antiquity has much finer subdivisions than prehistory does. The subdivisions of Antiquity are at the level of individual centuries. This is not quite fine enough to work with a conventional narrative history, but summaries of the major peoples and historical figures are possible. Beginning in the early 3rd millennium BC, I can examine the 30th century BC.

Other history can be used to consider the 30th century BC. I have added a few comments about sources. In the 19th century and 20th century, written history has been supplemented by archaeology. I still have a focus on Egypt and the first dynasty. Harappan civilization was developing in Pakistan and India, but since the writing has not been deciphered and translated, its history is not well known.

18th century Anglic history

In the late 18th century from 1781 to 1800, the British recognized American independence, expanded the East India Company holdings in India and began settlement of Australia. The United States established an improved system of government under its Constitution. The French Revolution was important in Europe.

In the early 19th century from 1801-1820, George III was deemed unfit to rule and his son reigned as regent in his stead in the period known as the Regency. Britain was involved in the Napoleonic wars. In the United States, the presidencies of Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe can be connected. The War of 1812 occurred. The New York city street grid was expanded to cover all of Manhattan island. An attempted invasion of Canada by the United States in the war of 1812 was defeated.

In the early mid 19th century from 1821-1840 in the United Kingdom, George IV and William IV ruled, slavery was abolished, there was electoral reform in 1832, and Victoria ascended to the throne in 1837. In the United States, the presidencies of Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Jackson, and Van Buren can be connected. New York City became connected to the agricultural region of the United States with completion of the Erie Canal. The British governed Canada and united the various provinces into a single domain in 1840.

Revolution

Specifically, the late mid 18th century from 1761-1780 has most of the American Revolution. While losing most of the American colonies, the British consolidated their rule over Canada and expanded their dominions in India.

I have finished a rewrite of the middle prehistory of institutions. I still don’t have the specific detail I would like, but it will come eventually.

Personal studies have gone through a rewrite of their connections to science. The next stage is to further connect personal studies to Sociology. The remaining medium and smaller countries and cities will be better connected to biographies and to contributions in psychology and the human body.